Friday, March 30, 2018

Q1 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 3/30/2018 03:32:00 PM

Here are few Q1 GDP forecast.

From Merrill Lynch:

The data sliced 0.3pp from 1Q GDP tracking, bringing it down to 1.6%. [March 29 estimate].
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 2.4 percent on March 29, up from 1.8 percent on March 23. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to first-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.66 percentage points to 1.21 percentage points after yesterday’s advance releases of wholesale and retail inventories by the U.S. Census Bureau, yesterday's GDP release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), and this morning's release of the revised underlying detail tables for the National Income and Product Accounts by the BEA.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.7% for 2018:Q1 and 2.9% for 2018:Q2. [March 30 estimate]
CR Note: It looks like another quarter around 2% or so, although there might still be some residual seasonality in the first quarter.