Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Q1 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 2/20/2018 04:03:00 PM

It is early, but here are few Q1 GDP forecast.

From Merrill Lynch:

The weak retail sales data sliced 0.3pp from our 1Q estimate to 2.0%, while 4Q 2017 dropped to 2.5% from 2.7%.
And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2018 is 3.2 percent on February 16, unchanged from February 14.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2018:Q1 stands at 3.1%.
CR Note: It looks likely that GDP will be 2% to low 3% range again in Q1.