Thursday, February 15, 2018

NAHB: Builder Confidence unchanged at 72 in February

by Bill McBride on 2/15/2018 10:09:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 72 in February, unchanged from 72 in January. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Stays at Strong Level in February

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remained unchanged at a healthy 72 level in February on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“Builders are excited about the pro-business political climate that will strengthen the housing market and support overall economic growth,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel, a custom home builder from LaPlace, La. “However, they need to manage supply-side construction hurdles, such as shortages of labor and lots and building material price increases.”

“The HMI gauge of future sales expectations has reached a post-recession high, an indicator that consumer demand for housing should grow in the months ahead,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With ongoing job creation, increasing owner-occupied household formation, and a tight supply of existing home inventory, the single-family housing sector should continue to strengthen at a gradual but consistent pace.”
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The HMI component charting sales expectations in the next six months rose two points to 80, the index measuring buyer traffic held steady at 54, and the component gauging current sales conditions dropped one point to 78.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Midwest rose two points to 72, the South increased one point to 74, the West remained unchanged at 81, and Northeast fell two points to 56.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was at the consensus forecast, and another strong reading.