Thursday, January 04, 2018

Goldman: December Payrolls Preview

by Bill McBride on 1/04/2018 02:05:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Spencer Hill:

We estimate that nonfarm payrolls increased 175k in December, somewhat below consensus of +190k. While labor market fundamentals appear solid, we expect a deceleration from the pace of job gains in October and November, which benefitted from a sharp employment rebound in hurricane-affected states. Our forecast also reflects a modest drag from winter storms around the December survey period.

We forecast a one-tenth decline in the unemployment rate to 4.0% ...We estimate average hourly earnings increased 0.3% month-over-month gain and 2.5% year-over-year ...
emphasis added