Wednesday, December 20, 2017

Phoenix Real Estate in November: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 11% YoY

by Bill McBride on 12/20/2017 04:00:00 PM

A little late this month ... but this is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in November were up 4.3% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes).

2) Active inventory is now down 10.9% year-over-year. 

More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%.

This is the thirteenth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (4.6% through September or 6.1% annual rate).

November Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Nov-084,417---1,21727.6%56,2271---
Nov-097,49469.7%2,57234.3%40,372-28.2%
Nov-106,789-9.4%2,96643.7%45,35312.3%
Nov-117,1475.3%3,24545.4%26,798-40.9%
Nov-126,810-4.7%2,94543.2%23,232-13.3%
Nov-135,181-23.9%1,76134.0%26,76215.2%
Nov-144,986-3.8%1,39628.0%27,4262.5%
Nov-155,3086.5%1,54229.1%25,022-8.8%
Nov-166,91130.2%1,61823.4%24,582-1.8%
Nov-177,2094.3%1,65022.9%21,898-10.9%
1 November 2008 probably includes pending listings