Wednesday, November 22, 2017

Vehicle Forecast: Sales Expected to Exceed 17 million SAAR Again in November

by Bill McBride on 11/22/2017 12:17:00 PM

The automakers will report November vehicle sales on Friday, Dec 1st.

Note: There are 25 selling days in November 2017, there were also 25 selling days in November 2016.

From WardsAuto: November U.S. Forecast: Post Sales-Surge Market Will Hit 17.1 Million SAAR

A WardsAuto forecast calls for U.S. automakers to deliver 1.36 million light vehicles in November.
...
The report puts the seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales for the month at 17.1 million units, below last year’s 17.6 million and last month’s exceptionally high 18.0 million.
emphasis added
Sales had been below 17 million SAAR (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) for six consecutive months, until September (18.5 million SAAR) and October (18.0 million SAAR), when sales spiked due to buying following Hurricane Harvey. Sales in November were probably also a little elevated due to the hurricanes.

Even with the pickup in sales in September and October, sales are still down about 2% through October compared to the same period in 2006.