Friday, November 17, 2017

Housing Starts increased to 1.290 Million Annual Rate in October

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2017 08:37:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,290,000. This is 13.7 percent above the revised September estimate of 1,135,000, but is 2.9 percent below the October 2016 rate of 1,328,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 877,000; this is 5.3 percent above the revised September figure of 833,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 393,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,297,000. This is 5.9 percent above the revised September rate of 1,225,000 and is 0.9 percent above the October 2016 rate of 1,285,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 839,000; this is 1.9 percent above the revised September figure of 823,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 416,000 in October.
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased in October compared to Septeber.  However Multi-family starts are down year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, but has been mostly moving down recently.

Single-family starts (blue) increased in October, and are up slightly year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in October were above expectations.  Starts for August and September were revised down slightly, combined.

I'll have more later ...