Friday, September 08, 2017

Q3 GDP Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 9/08/2017 02:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

Hurricane Harvey may end up being the most expensive natural disaster in history. We expect to see the impact of Harvey in upcoming economic releases, including jobless claims, manufacturing and consumer-related data. Factoring in Harvey, we take down our 3Q GDP tracker by 0.4pp to 2.5%. Hurricane Irma may be an additional drag.
emphasis added
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 3.0 percent on September 8, up from 2.9 percent on September 6. The forecast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth increased from 0.87 percentage points to 0.94 percentage points after this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.1% for 2017:Q3 and 2.6% for 2017:Q4.
CR Note: Looks like real GDP growth will probably be in the 2s in Q3.