Monday, September 18, 2017

NAHB: Builder Confidence idecreased to 64 in September

by Bill McBride on 9/18/2017 10:07:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 64 in September, down from 67 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From NAHB: Builder Confidence Drops Three Points As Hurricanes Add Uncertainty

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes fell three points to a level of 64 in September from a downwardly revised August reading of 67 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).

“The recent hurricanes have intensified our members’ concerns about the availability of labor and the cost of building materials,” said NAHB Chairman Granger MacDonald, a home builder and developer from Kerrville, Texas. “Once the rebuilding process is underway, I expect builder confidence will return to the high levels we saw this spring.”

“Despite this month’s drop, builder confidence is still on very firm ground,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “With ongoing job creation, economic growth and rising consumer confidence, we should see the housing market continue to recover at a gradual, steady pace throughout the rest of the year.”
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All three HMI components posted losses in September but remain at healthy levels. The component gauging current sales conditions fell four points to 70 and the index charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped four points to 74. Meanwhile, the component measuring buyer traffic slipped a single point to 47.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West increased three points to 77 and the Northeast rose one point to 49. The South dropped a single point to 66 and the Midwest fell three points to 63.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was below the consensus forecast, but still a solid reading.