Thursday, July 20, 2017

Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in June

by Bill McBride on 7/20/2017 05:20:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler:

Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports from across the country released through today, I project that US existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.59 million in June, down 0.5% from May’s preliminary pace and up 2.0% from last May’s seasonally adjusted pace. On the inventory front, local realtor/MLS data suggest that there was a smaller YOY decline in the number of homes for sale in June compared to May, and I project that the NAR’s estimate of the number of existing homes for sale in June will be 1.97 million, up 0.5% from May’s preliminary estimate and down 6.6% from last May’s estimate. Finally, I project that the NAR’s estimate of the median existing single-family home sales price in June will be up 6.1% from last June.

In terms of inventories, there are sizable differences in trends across markets. As an example, the California Association of Realtors’ tabulation is that active listings of existing SF homes in California last month were down 13.5% from a year earlier, compared to a YOY decline of 12.4% in May. For Texas, in contrast, the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University reported that active residential listings in Texas last month were up 13.0% from last June, compared to a YOY increase of 10.2% in May.

CR Note: The NAR is scheduled to release existing home sales for June on Monday, July 24th. The consensus forecast is for sales of 5.62 million SAAR.