Friday, July 21, 2017

Goldman: FOMC Preview

by Bill McBride on 7/21/2017 12:25:00 PM

The FOMC will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and no change to policy is expected.

Here are a few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle: FOMC Preview

We do not expect any policy changes at the July FOMC meeting and expect only limited changes to the post-meeting statement. The statement is likely to upgrade the description of job growth, but might also recognize that inflation has declined further. We think the statement is also likely to acknowledge that the balance sheet announcement is now closer at hand.

Looking ahead, we continue to expect the FOMC to announce the start of balance sheet normalization in September. We see a 5% probability that the next rate hike will come in September, a 5% probability that it will come in November, and a 50% probability that it will come in December, for a 60% cumulative probability of at least three hikes this year.