Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Zillow Forecast: "Case-Shiller national index is forecast to grow 6 percent year-over-year" in February

by Bill McBride on 3/29/2017 11:55:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for January were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: February Case-Shiller Forecast: Year-Over-Year Price Gains to Continue

Annual gains in the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price indices are expected to maintain their smoking pace in February, while month-over-month gains are expected to slow, according to Zillow’s February Case-Shiller forecast.

The February Case-Shiller national index is forecast to grow 6 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent from January, up from January’s 5.9 percent annual growth but down a bit from its 0.6 percent monthly growth. The smaller 10- and 20-city indices are expected to post annual growth of 5.4 percent and 5.7 percent, respectively, up from 5.1 percent for the 10-city index and even with the 20-city index’s performance in January.

The 10- and 20-city indices are projected to post seasonally adjusted, month-over-month gains of 0.8 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively. Both would represent slowing from the 0.9 percent growth they each saw between December and January.

Zillow’s February Case-Shiller forecast is shown below. These forecasts are based on today’s January Case-Shiller data release and the February 2017 Zillow Home Value Index. The February S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, April 25.
The year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller national index will probably increase in February.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller