by Bill McBride on 3/28/2017 09:18:00 AM
Tuesday, March 28, 2017
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for January ("January" is a 3 month average of November, December and January prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller National Index Annual Return Sets 31-Month High
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.9% annual gain in January, up from 5.7% last month and setting a 31-month high. The 10-City Composite posted a 5.1% annual increase, up from 4.8% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.7%, up from 5.5% in DecemberClick on graph for larger image.
Seattle, Portland, and Denver reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities over each of the last 12 months. In January, Seattle led the way with an 11.3% year-over-year price increase, followed by Portland with 9.7%, and Denver with a 9.2% increase. Twelve cities reported greater price increases in the year ending January 2017 versus the year ending December 2016.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.2% in January. The 10-City Composite posted a 0.3% increase and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.2% increase in January. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.6% month-over-month increase, while both the 10-City and 20-City Composites each reported a 0.9% month-over-month increase. Thirteen of 20 cities reported increases in January before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 19 cities saw prices rise.
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 7.7% from the peak, and up 0.9% in January (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 5.4% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in January.
The National index is 1.9% above the bubble peak (SA), and up 0.6% (SA) in January. The National index is up 37.7% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 5.1% compared to January 2015.
The Composite 20 SA is up 5.7% year-over-year.
The National index SA is up 5.9% year-over-year.
Note: According to the data, prices increased in all 19 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
I'll have more later.