by Bill McBride on 1/28/2017 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, January 28, 2017
The key report this week is the January employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the January ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and January auto sales.
The FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change to policy is expected.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for December. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.5% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for January.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2016 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 5.0% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for November. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.6% year-over-year in November.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 55.2, up from 54.6 in December.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.7 million SAAR in January, from 18.4 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the December sales rate.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 168,000 payroll jobs added in January, up from 153,000 added in December.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 55.0, up from 54.7 in December.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 54.7% in December. The employment index was at 53.1%, and the new orders index was at 60.2%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to FOMC policy is expected at this meeting.
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 253 thousand initial claims, down from 259 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for January. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in January, up from the 156,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.7%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In December, the year-over-year change was 2.16 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for December. The consensus is a 0.9% increase in orders.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for index to increase to 57.2 from 57.1 in December.