Sunday, December 04, 2016

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 12/04/2016 07:17:00 PM

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of Dec 4, 2016

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

• Also at 10:00 AM, the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for the index to increase to 55.5 from 54.8 in October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P futures are down 8, and DOW futures are down 40 (fair value).

Oil prices were up sharply over the last week with WTI futures at $51.68 per barrel and Brent at $54.46 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $40, and Brent was at $41 - so oil prices are up 25% to 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.18 per gallon - a year ago prices were at $2.04 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up more than 10 cents per gallon year-over-year.

Oil PricesClick on graph for larger image

This graph shows the year-over-year change in WTI based on data from the EIA.

Five times since 1987, oil prices have increased 100% or more YoY.  And several times prices have almost fallen in half YoY.  Oil prices are volatile!

WTI oil prices are currently up 27% year-over-year.