by Bill McBride on 12/31/2016 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, December 31, 2016
Happy New Year!
The key report this week is the December employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include the December ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, the November trade deficit, and December auto sales.
Also the Q4 quarterly Reis surveys for office, apartment and malls will be released this week.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the New Year's Day Holiday.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 53.8, up from 53.2 in November.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 53.2% in November. The employment index was at 52.3%, and the new orders index was at 53.0%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for November. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
Early: Reis Q4 2016 Office Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
All day: Light vehicle sales for December. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.7 million SAAR in December, from 17.9 million in November (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the November sales rate.
2:00 PM: The Fed will release the FOMC minutes for the December meeting.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for December. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 172,000 payroll jobs added in December, down from 216,000 added in November.
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 260 thousand initial claims, down from 265 thousand the previous week.
Early: Reis Q4 2016 Apartment Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for December. The consensus is for index to decrease to 56.8 from 57.2 in November.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in December, down from the 178,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to increase to 4.7%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In November, the year-over-year change was 2.25 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for November from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $44.5 billion in November from $42.6 billion in October.
Early: Reis Q4 2016 Mall Survey of rents and vacancy rates.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for November. The consensus is a 2.5% decrease in orders.