Friday, December 16, 2016

Housing Starts decreased to 1.090 Million Annual Rate in November

by Bill McBride on 12/16/2016 08:38:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,090,000. This is 18.7 percent below the revised October estimate of 1,340,000 and is 6.9 percent below the November 2015 rate of 1,171,000.

Single-family housing starts in November were at a rate of 828,000; this is 4.1 percent below the revised October figure of 863,000. The November rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 259,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,201,000. This is 4.7 percent below the revised October rate of 1,260,000 and is 6.6 percent below the November 2015 estimate of 1,286,000.

Single-family authorizations in November were at a rate of 778,000; this is 0.5 percent above the revised October figure of 774,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 384,000 in November
emphasis added
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years.

Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in November compared to October.  Multi-family starts are down sharply year-over-year.

Multi-family is volatile, and the swings have been huge over the last three months.

Single-family starts (blue) decreased in November, and are up 5% year-over-year.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

 The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically low),

Total housing starts in November were well below expectations due to the sharp decrease in multi-family starts.  However September and October were revised up, combined.  I'll have more later ...