Tuesday, October 18, 2016

NAHB: Builder Confidence at 63 in October

by Bill McBride on 10/18/2016 10:06:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 63 in October, down from 65 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Remains Solid in Octobe

Builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes remained on firm ground in October, down two points to a level of 63 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI).
...
“The October reading represents a mild pullback from a jump in September, and indicates that the housing market continues to make slow and steady gains,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Moreover, mortgage rates remain low and the HMI index measuring future sales expectations has been over 70 for the past two months. These factors will sustain continued growth in the single-family market in the months ahead.”
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Two of the three HMI components posted losses in October. The component gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 69 and the index charting buyer traffic fell one point to 46. Meanwhile, the index measuring sales expectations in the next six months rose one point to 72.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West increased two points to 75 while the Northeast, Midwest and South each posted one-point gains to 43, 56 and 65, respectively.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was at the consensus forecast of 63, and is another solid reading.