Tuesday, October 04, 2016

CoreLogic: House Prices up 6.2% Year-over-year in August

by Bill McBride on 10/04/2016 09:47:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for August. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for July. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic US Home Price Report Shows Prices Up 6.2 Percent Year Over Year in August 2016

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 6.2 percent in August 2016 compared with August 2015 and increased month over month by 1.1 percent in August 2016 compared with July 2016, according to the CoreLogic HPI.
...
“Home prices are now just 6 percent below the nominal peak reached in April 2006,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic. “With prices forecasted to increase by 5 percent over the next year, prices will be back to their peak level in 2017.”

“Housing values continue to rise briskly on stronger fundamental and investor-fueled demand, as well as lack of adequate supply,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “This continued price appreciation is contributing to a growing affordability crisis in many markets around the country.”
emphasis added
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.1% in August (NSA), and is up 6.2% over the last year.

This index is not seasonally adjusted, and this was another solid month-to-month increase.

The index is still 6.0% below the bubble peak in nominal terms (not inflation adjusted).

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph shows the YoY change in nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation).

The YoY increase had been moving sideways over the last two years.

The year-over-year comparison has been positive for fifty five consecutive months since turning positive year-over-year in February 2012.