by Bill McBride on 9/29/2016 01:37:00 PM
Thursday, September 29, 2016
The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.
From Zillow: August Case-Shiller Forecast: New Home Price Peaks Within Sight
According to Zillow’s August Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to keep growing at a very similar rate as they have been for the past few months. After two full years of steady growth around 5 percent annually, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, just 0.6 percent off those levels, according to today’s data.The year-over-year change for the 20-city index will probably be slightly lower in the August report than in the July report. The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.
The August Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.2 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and to stay flat (SA) from July. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 4.9 percent between August 2015 and August 2016, and rise 0.1 percent (SA) from July.
Zillow’s August Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s July Case-Shiller data release and the August 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, October 25.