Thursday, September 29, 2016

Zillow Forecast: Expect Similar YoY Growth in August for the Case-Shiller Indexes

by Bill McBride on 9/29/2016 01:37:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for July were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: August Case-Shiller Forecast: New Home Price Peaks Within Sight

According to Zillow’s August Case-Shiller forecast, the national index and both smaller 10 and 20-city indices look set to keep growing at a very similar rate as they have been for the past few months. After two full years of steady growth around 5 percent annually, the U.S. National Case-Shiller home price index is within striking distance of reaching its July 2006 peak levels, just 0.6 percent off those levels, according to today’s data.

The August Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.2 percent year-over-year and 0.5 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and to stay flat (SA) from July. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 4.9 percent between August 2015 and August 2016, and rise 0.1 percent (SA) from July.

Zillow’s August Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s July Case-Shiller data release and the August 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The August S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, October 25.
The year-over-year change for the 20-city index will probably be slightly lower in the August report than in the July report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller