Monday, September 19, 2016

Hotels: "Demand Growth Slows, Supply Growth Increases"

by Bill McBride on 9/19/2016 08:50:00 AM

First here is the weekly data from STR: US hotel results for week ending 10 September

he U.S. hotel industry recorded mixed results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 4-10 September 2016, according to data from STR.

In year-over-year comparisons, the industry’s occupancy fell 1.4% to 62.8%. However, average daily rate increased 1.8% to US$118.58, and revenue per available room was nearly flat (+0.3% to US$74.45).
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateThe red line is for 2016, dashed orange is 2015, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.

2015 was the best year on record for hotels.

So far 2016 is tracking just behind 2015, and well ahead of the median rate.

Also 2016 is tracking ahead of 2000 (the previous 2nd best year).

The Summer travel period has ended, and the occupancy rate has declined seasonally.  The occupancy rate will now increase as business travel picks up in the Fall.

Hotel Occupancy RateThe second graph is from a Smith Travel Research data presentation. This shows that demand is slowing and supply is increasing. This suggests the occupancy rate will decline in 2017.

This graph is from a data presentation by STR. These presentations are available here with a free registration (including local data depending on presentation).

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of