Wednesday, September 28, 2016

ATA Trucking Index increased Sharply in August

by Bill McBride on 9/28/2016 09:46:00 AM

This was released last week by the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Jumped 5.7% in August

American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index increased 5.7% in August, following a 2.1% decline during July. In August, the index equaled 141.8 (2000=100), up from 134.2 in July. The all-time high was 144 in February.

Compared with August 2015, the SA index rose 5.9%, the largest year-over-year gain since May also 5.9%. In July, the year-over-year increase was 0.2%. Year-to-date, compared with the same period in 2015, tonnage was up 3.5%.
“Volatility continues to reign in 2016. This month’s tonnage reading highlights this fact and underscores the difficulty in determining any real or clear trend in truck tonnage,” said ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello. “What is clear to me is that normal seasonal patterns are not holding in 2016.”
“Despite a difficult to read August, I expect the truck freight environment to be softer than normal as well as continued choppiness until the inventory correction is complete. With moderate economic growth forecasted, truck freight will improve as progress is made with the inventory overhang,” he said.
emphasis added
ATA Trucking Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

The index is now up 5.9% year-over-year.