by Bill McBride on 8/27/2016 08:09:00 AM
Saturday, August 27, 2016
The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for July, the Case-Shiller House Price Index for June, the August ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, August auto sales, and the July trade deficit.
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of April, May and June prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the May 2016 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 5.2% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for June. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.1% year-over-year in June.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 175,000 payroll jobs added in August, down from 179,000 added in July.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 55.2, down from 55.8 in July.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in the index.
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 265 thousand initial claims, up from 261 thousand the previous week.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 52.2, down from 52.6 in July.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 52.6% in July. The employment index was at 49.4%, and the new orders index was at 56.9%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.1 million SAAR in August, from 17.8 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the July sales rate.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 175,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, down from the 255,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 4.8%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In July, the year-over-year change was 2.45 million jobs.
A key will be the change in wages.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $41.3 billion in July from $44.5 billion in June.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is a 2.0% increase in orders.