by Calculated Risk on 8/10/2016 05:26:00 PM

A quick trip down memory lane. Here are couple of posts from August 2005 when we were looking for the housing top. Inventory was the key - and inventory was just starting to increase.

Sign, Sign, Everywhere a Sign



The first photo - from August 2005 - shows four houses in a row for sale in my neighborhood (the signs were everywhere).

And back when I wrote at Angry Bear: Signs of the Times



The second photo - from the 2005 Angry Bear post - was from the O.C. Register showing three in a row.

This graph is based on the June 2016 existing home sales report. Inventory really started to increase in the second half of 2005, and increased sharply in 2006. Inventory was the key in calling the top (the bubble was obvious, but the timing of the bust was a little more difficult). First came the increase in inventory and then prices peaked in early 2006. I still watch inventory closely!