Thursday, July 21, 2016

Existing Home Sales increased in June to 5.57 million SAAR

by Bill McBride on 7/21/2016 10:11:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Ascend Again in June, First-time Buyers Provide Spark

Total existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, climbed 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.57 million in June from a downwardly revised 5.51 million in May. After last month's gain, sales are now up 3.0 percent from June 2015 (5.41 million) and remain at their highest annual pace since February 2007 (5.79 million). ...

Total housing inventory at the end of June dipped 0.9 percent to 2.12 million existing homes available for sale, and is now 5.8 percent lower than a year ago (2.25 million). Unsold inventory is at a 4.6-month supply at the current sales pace, which is down from 4.7 months in May.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in June (5.57 million SAAR) were 1.1% higher than last month, and were 3.0% above the June 2015 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 2.12 million in June from 2.14 million in May.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 5.8% year-over-year in June compared to June 2015.  

Months of supply was at 4.6 months in June.

This was above consensus expectations. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low. I'll have more later ...