Thursday, August 04, 2016

Goldman's July NFP Preview

by Bill McBride on 8/04/2016 10:34:00 AM

A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' July Payroll Preview by economist David Mericle:

We expect a 190k increase in nonfarm payroll employment in July, slightly above consensus expectations for a 180k gain. ...

The unemployment rate is likely to remain at 4.9%, though we see the risks as tilted to the downside. Average hourly earnings likely rose 0.3% in July and 2.6% over the past year.
...
Our wage tracker—which aggregates four measures of wage growth—has accelerated to 2.8% year-on-year in our preliminary Q2 estimate, a sign that diminishing slack is boosting wage growth.