Thursday, July 28, 2016

Kansas City Fed: Regional Manufacturing Activity "Declined Modestly" in July

by Bill McBride on 7/28/2016 11:21:00 AM

From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Declined Modestly

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the July Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity declined modestly.

“Factories in our region reported a slight pullback in July following modest expansion in June,” said Wilkerson. “However, their expectations for future activity continued to increase.”
...
The month-over-month composite index was -6 in July, down from 2 in June and -5 in May ... The employment index inched down to -5 ...
emphasis added
This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for July.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through July), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through July) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through June (right axis).

It seems likely the ISM manufacturing index will show expansion again in July.