Friday, June 03, 2016

Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

by Bill McBride on 6/03/2016 05:22:00 PM

A couple of years ago - when there was a disappointing jobs report - I called out the people calling it a "disaster".

Here is my post from 2014: Payroll Employment: Best Years, Worst Month

In that post I noted that there were strong employment years with some weak employment months.  Sure enough, 2014 saw strong employment growth of over 3 million jobs.  Some "disaster"!

Other examples: In 1983, there was a month with 308 thousand jobs lost - but it was a strong year for employment gains.  Or 1997, another strong year, with 31 thousand jobs lost in one month.

Job growth has slowed so far in 2016, but I still think we will see over 2 million jobs added this year.

Here is a table of the best years for job growth since 1980 with the worst month of the year (this is after revisions).  Obviously there is a significant amount of volatility month-to-month in the employment report.

Non-Farm Payroll: Best Years, Worst Month
YearAnnual (000s)Worst Month (000s)
19843,880128
19943,852200
19833,458-308
19973,407-31
19883,24294
19993,179107
19873,153171
19983,047129
20143,015168
19962,825-19
19932,816-49
20152,74484
20052,51468
19852,502124
20132,31145
19952,158-15
20122,14975
20062,0924
20112,08742
20042,04244
20001,951-47
19891,94340
19861,902-94
201611,79538
12016 is the hiring pace through May.