Thursday, June 16, 2016

NAHB: Builder Confidence increases to 60 in June

by Bill McBride on 6/16/2016 10:04:00 AM

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 60 in June, up from 58 in May. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Rises Two Points in June

After holding steady for the past four months, builder confidence in the market for newly constructed single-family homes rose two points in June to a level of 60 on the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). This is the highest reading since January 2016.
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“Rising home sales, an improving economy and the fact that the HMI gauge measuring future sales expectations is running at an eight-month high are all positive factors indicating that the housing market should continue to move forward in the second half of 2016,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz.
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All three HMI components posted gains in June. The component gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 64, the index charting sales expectations in the next six months increased five points to 70, and the component measuring buyer traffic climbed three points to 47.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South registered a two-point uptick to 61 and the West rose one point to 68. The Northeast dropped two points to 39 and the Midwest fell one point to 57.
emphasis added
NAHB HMI Click on graph for larger image.

This graph show the NAHB index since Jan 1985.

This was above the consensus forecast of 59, and a solid reading.