by Bill McBride on 5/09/2016 02:53:00 PM
Monday, May 09, 2016
This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.
Inventory was up year-over-year in April. This is the second consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix. This could be a significant change.
The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):
1) Overall sales in April were up 0.8% year-over-year.
2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.8% of total sales.
3) Active inventory is now up 4.9% year-over-year.
More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014. And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.
In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster - Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.
Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.
|April Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS|
|Cash||Percent Cash||Inventory||YoY Change|
|1 April 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more|