Monday, May 09, 2016

Phoenix Real Estate in April: Sales up 1%, Inventory up YoY

by Bill McBride on 5/09/2016 02:53:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

Inventory was up year-over-year in April.  This is the second consecutive months with a YoY increase in inventory, following fifteen consecutive months of YoY declines in Phoenix.  This could be a significant change.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in April were up 0.8% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 23.8% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now up 4.9% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster -  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller.

Now inventory is increasing a little again, and - if this trend continues in Phoenix - price increases will probably slow.

April Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
SalesYoY
Change
Sales
CashPercent CashInventoryYoY Change
Apr-084,8751---98620.2%55,7261---
Apr-098,56475.7%3,46440.4%44,165-20.7%
Apr-109,2618.1%3,64139.3%41,756-5.5%
Apr-119,3280.7%4,48948.1%34,515-17.3%
Apr-128,438-9.5%4,01347.6%21,125-38.8%
Apr-138,7443.6%3,67042.0%20,083-4.9%
Apr-147,656-12.4%2,46932.2%29,88948.8%
Apr-158,3689.3%2,12025.3%25,950-13.2%
Apr-168,4370.8%2,00823.8%27,2324.9%
1 April 2008 does not include manufactured homes, ~100 more