Sunday, March 06, 2016

Sunday Night Futures

by Bill McBride on 3/06/2016 07:56:00 PM

From Ben Leubsdorf at the WSJ: The Hurdles to Getting U.S. Workers Off the Sidelines

The labor-force participation rate, which stood at 66% on the eve of the recession [slumped] to a 38-year low of 62.4% last fall ... Now the strongest run of hiring since the end of the 1990s is drawing would-be job seekers off the sidelines, pushing the rate steadily up since September. It hit 62.9% in February.

But powerful forces independent of the business cycle are exerting a strong downward pressure, with the wave of baby-boomer retirements topping the list. The participation rate may keep climbing in the short term, but many private and government economists believe it will resume its decline soon enough.
Long term trends and demographics suggest the participation rate will continue to decline.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of March 6, 2016

Update: Labor Force Participation

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The Fed will release the monthly Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI).

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 7 and DOW futures are down 48 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $36.21 per barrel and Brent at $39.00 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $50, and Brent was at $60 - so prices are down about 30% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $1.82 per gallon (down about $0.65 per gallon from a year ago).