by Bill McBride on 3/26/2016 02:02:00 PM
Saturday, March 26, 2016
The key report this week is the March employment report on Friday.
Other key indicators include March vehicle sales, the March ISM manufacturing index, February Personal income and outlays, and the January Case-Shiller house price index.
Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaks on Tuesday on the "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy".
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in personal income, and for a 0.1% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for February. The consensus is for a 1.5% increase in the index.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for March.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the December 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 5.8% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for January. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.6% year-over-year in January.
12:20 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy, At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, New York, New York
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 203,000 payroll jobs added in March, down from 214,000 in February.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 266 thousand initial claims, up from 265 thousand the previous week.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a reading of 50.3, up from 47.6 in February.
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March. The consensus is for an increase of 210,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in March, down from the 242,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in February.
The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9%.
This graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.
In February, the year-over-year change was 2.67 million jobs.
A key will be the change in real wages.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.5, up from 49.5 in February.
Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.
The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction at 49.5% in February. The employment index was at 48.5%, and the new orders index was at 51.5%.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.
All day: Light vehicle sales for March. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to increase to 17.6 million SAAR in March from 17.5 million in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for March). The consensus is for a reading of 90.9, up from the preliminary reading 91.0.