by Bill McBride on 1/23/2016 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, January 23, 2016
The key reports this week are the first estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, and the Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.
The FOMC is meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, and no change in policy is expected at this meeting.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for January.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.5% month-to-month increase for this index.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 5.7% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for November. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 5.3% year-over-year in November.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.
10:00 AM ET: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment for December.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the November sales rate.
The consensus is for a increase in sales to 500 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 490 thousand in November.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to make no change to policy at this meeting.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 285 thousand initial claims, down from 293 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in durable goods orders.
10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in the index.
10:00 AM: the Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership from the Census Bureau.
11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for January.
8:30 AM ET: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2015 (Advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 0.9% annualized in Q4.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 45.5, up from 42.9 in December.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 93.0, down from the preliminary reading 93.3.
Posted by Bill McBride on 1/23/2016 08:11:00 AM