Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect November Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index slightly higher than in October

by Bill McBride on 12/30/2015 04:31:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: November Case-Shiller Forecast Shows Continued Growth

Similar to last month’s Zillow’s Home Value Index data, October S&P Case-Shiller data shows home prices continuing to climb. The 10- and 20-City Indices as well as the National Case-Shiller Index grew by nearly 1 percent between September and October. Similarly all three of the indices showed annual growth rates north of 5 percent. This marks the first time in over a year the national index has grown at 5 percent annually.

When November Case-Shiller data is released a month from now, we expect the data will show continuing growth month-over-month, though not at quite the same sizzling pace. We predict that the 10- and 20- City Indices will end November 0.5 percent above their October values (seasonally adjusted). We expect the national index to grow slightly faster than the other two, at a rate of 0.7 percent month-over-month.

Inline with continued monthly growth we also expect all rates still above 5 percent when November data is released. The table below shows the current changes in Case-Shiller data along with our forecasts for next month’s data.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the November Case-Shiller National index will be slightly higher than in the October report.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller