Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.2% year-over-year in October

by Bill McBride on 12/29/2015 09:21:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for October ("September" is a 3 month average of August, September and October prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Continued Increases in Home Prices for October According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 5.2% annual increase in October 2015 versus a 4.9% increase in September 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.1% in the year to October compared to 4.9% previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.5% versus 5.4% reported in September.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.1% month-over-month in October. The 10-City Composite was unchanged and the 20-City Composite reported gains of 0.1% month-over-month in October. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.9%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both increased 0.8% month-over-month. Ten of 20 cities reported increases in October before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, all 20 cities increased for the month.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 13.7% from the peak, and up 0.8% in October (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 12.3% from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in October.

The National index is off 5.1% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in October.  The National index is up 28.2% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 5.1% compared to October 2014.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.6% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 5.2% year-over-year.

Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in October seasonally adjusted.  (Prices increased in 10 of the 20 cities NSA)  Prices in Las Vegas are off 39.0% from the peak.

Case-Shiller CitiesThe last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.

As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 55% above January 2000 (55% nominal gain in almost 16 years).

These are nominal prices, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) are up about 40% since January 2000 - so the increase in Phoenix from January 2000 until now is about 15% above the change in overall prices due to inflation.

Five cities - Charlotte, Boston, Dallas, Denver and Portland - are above the bubble highs (other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city are close - San Francisco and Seattle).    Detroit prices are barely above the January 2000 level.

I'll have more on house prices later.