Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Vehicle Sales Forecast: Record Production in 2016

by Bill McBride on 12/30/2015 08:10:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, up from 267 thousand the previous week.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The consensus is for a reading of 50.0, up from 48.7 in November.

The automakers will report December vehicle sales on Tuesday, January 5th. Sales in November were at 18.1 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it possible sales in December will be over 18 million SAAR again.

From WardsAuto: North America Production Will Hit 18 Million Next Year

Forecast 2016 production totals 18.2 million vehicles, including 17.7 million light vehicles and 490,000 medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The LV total is 1.2% above the estimated 17.44 million in 2015, while the big-truck volume is 4.9% under 2015’s estimated total of 515,000.

Total estimated vehicle output in 2015 of 17.96 million units is 1.1% above 2014’s 17.42 million and will topple the previous high of 17.66 million in 2000. LV volume this year will be a new record – beating 2000’s 17.16 million – while big-truck output will be a 9-year high.
2015 was a record year for light vehicle production in the US, and it looks like 2016 will be even better.