by Bill McBride on 11/21/2015 08:11:00 AM
Saturday, November 21, 2015
This will be a short, but busy holiday week.
The key reports this week are the second estimate of Q3 GDP, October New Home sales, October Existing Home Sales, October personal income and outlays, and September Case-Shiller house prices.
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October. This is a composite index of other data.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for October from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.41 million SAAR, down from 5.55 million in September.
Economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.33 million SAAR.
A key will be the reported year-over-year change in inventory of homes for sale.
8:30 AM ET: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2015 (Second estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.1% annualized in Q3, revised up from the advance estimate of 1.5%.
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for September. Although this is the September report, it is really a 3 month average of July, August and September prices.
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the August 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a 5.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for September. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.7% year-over-year in September.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for November.
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, down from 271 thousand the previous week.
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for October from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.5% decrease in durable goods orders.
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for October. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for September 2015. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% month-to-month increase for this index.
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for October from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the August sales rate.
The consensus is for a increase in sales to 499 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in October from 468 thousand in September.
10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for November). The consensus is for a reading of 93.1, unchanged from the preliminary reading.
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Thanksgiving Day Holiday.
The NYSE and the NASDAQ will close at 1:00 PM ET.
Posted by Bill McBride on 11/21/2015 08:11:00 AM