Thursday, October 29, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect September Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to August

by Bill McBride on 10/29/2015 06:10:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for August were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: September Case-Shiller Forecast: Look for Continued Modest Growth in Pace of Appreciation

he August S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with slight rises in the 10- and 20- city indices and almost half a percentage point rise in the national index.

We expect the September SPCS to show similar slight increases of 0.1 percent for the 10-City Index and 0.2 percent for the 20-City Index from August to September. The national index is expected to gain half of a percentage point over the same period (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10- City and national indices to both grow 4.7 percent for the year ending in September, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.1 percent, the same rates of annual appreciation reported for August.

All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s August SPCS data release and the September 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released October 26. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for September will not be officially released until Tuesday, November 24.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the September Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the August report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
August
Actual YoY
4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%
September
Forecast
YoY
4.7%4.7%5.1%5.1%4.7%4.7%
September
Forecast
MoM
-0.1%0.1%-0.1%0.2%0.0%0.5%