Monday, November 30, 2015

Chicago PMI declines to 48.7

by Bill McBride on 11/30/2015 09:53:00 AM

Chicago PMI: Nov Chicago Business Barometer Down 7.5 Points To 48.7

The Chicago Business Barometer decreased 7.5 points to 48.7 in November from 56.2 in October, as a sharp fall in New Orders put it back into contraction for the sixth time this year.

The significant decline in the Barometer is indicative of the see-saw pattern of demand seen in 2015, with output and orders shifting in and out of contraction. The November fall also suggests that activity over the final quarter of the year may well decelerate barring a bounceback in December.

New Orders fell 15.3 points to 44.1 in November from 59.4 in October, leaving it at the lowest level since March. Production also fell sharply, although managed to hold just above the neutral 50 level that separates expansion from contraction.
...
Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “That the Barometer was unable to hold on to the gain seen in October is a reflection of the erratic pattern of demand seen throughout 2015. The slowdown in the global economy, the strong dollar and decline in oil prices have all impacted businesses this year to varying degrees.”
emphasis added
This was well below the consensus forecast of 54.0.