Sunday, November 08, 2015

2016: Preliminary Housing Forecasts

by Bill McBride on 11/08/2015 09:40:00 AM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year, and it looks like analysts are optimistic for 2016 (many more forecasts will be added).

First a review of the previous three years ...

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015. In 2015, new home sales will probably be just over 500 thousand, and total housing starts will be something over 1.1 million.  It is early, but CoreLogic, Zillow and the MBA were very close on New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all close on starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014. In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts.

Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013. In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays were the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts.

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2016 (I'll add many more of the next several weeks).

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2015

From NAHB: housing and economic forecast.

UCLA Ziman Center.

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2015 will probably be just over 500 thousand, and total housing starts over 1.1 million.

I haven't worked up a forecast yet for 2016, however I think the NAHB forecast for new home sales is too high - as is the UCLA forecast for housing starts.

Housing Forecasts for 2016
New Home Sales (000s)Single Family Starts (000s)Total Starts (000s)House Prices1
Fannie Mae5628271,2244.9%2
NAHB6428771,255
UCLA Ziman Center
1,420
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise
2FHFA Purchase-Only Index