Thursday, October 29, 2015

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI, Consumer Sentiment

by Bill McBride on 10/29/2015 09:10:00 PM

Earlier today, the UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate released some predictions for 2016:

[W]e are forecasting housing starts of 1.14 million units this year and 1.42 million units and 1.44 million units in 2016 and 2017, respectively. ...

Our forecast is underpinned by continued growth in real GDP that will likely run at 3% in 2016, continued jobs gains in excess of 200,000 a month for most of the forecast period, relatively low mortgage rates at least through 2016 and household formations in excess of one million a year in 2016 and 2017.
This housing start forecast for 2016 seems way too optimistic and I doubt the builders could ramp up that quickly. Also I doubt we will see 200 thousand jobs added per month through 2017; it takes less that 100 thousand jobs per month to hold the unemployment rate steady - and I've been expecting job growth to slow.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in personal income, and for a 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Employment Cost Index for Q3. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in Q3.

• At 9:45 AM, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 49.2, up from 48.7 in September.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for October). The consensus is for a reading of 92.5, up from the preliminary reading of 92.1.