Wednesday, October 07, 2015

Phoenix Real Estate in September: Sales up 12%, Inventory down 12%

by Bill McBride on 10/07/2015 02:02:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying.

For the tenth consecutive month, inventory was down year-over-year in Phoenix. This is a significant change from last year.

The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below):

1) Overall sales in September were up 11.6% year-over-year.

2) Cash Sales (frequently investors) were down to 22.6% of total sales.

3) Active inventory is now down 11.7% year-over-year.  

More inventory (a theme in 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow sharply in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller.

Now, with falling inventory, prices are increasing a little faster in 2015 (something to watch if inventory continues to decline).   Prices are already up 3.0% through July (prices increased more in 7 months in 2015, than all of 2014).

September Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS
  SalesYoY
Change
Sales
Cash
Sales
Percent
Cash
Active
Inventory
YoY
Change
Inventory
Sept-086,179---1,04116.8%54,4271---
Sept-097,90728.0%2,77635.1%38,340-29.6%
Sept-106,762-14.5%2,90442.9%45,20217.9%
Sept-117,89216.7%3,47044.0%26,950-40.4%
Sept-126,478-17.9%2,84944.0%21,703-19.5%
Sept-136,313-2.5%2,10633.4%23,4057.8%
Sept-146,252-1.0%1,60925.7%26,49213.2%
Sept-156,98011.6%1,57322.5%23,396-11.7%
1 September 2008 probably includes pending listings