Monday, September 28, 2015

Today in Fed Speak

by Bill McBride on 9/28/2015 06:59:00 PM

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, the S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July prices. The consensus is for a 5.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.6% year-over-year in July.

Today in Fed speak: This year, this year, and "middle of next year".

From NY Fed President William Dudley: Fed’s Dudley: Still Likely on Track for 2015 Rate Rise

“If the economy continues on the same trajectory it’s on…and everything else suggests that’s likely to continue…then there is a pretty strong case for lifting off” before 2015 ends, he said in a Wall Street Journal interview.
emphasis added
From SF Fed President John Williams: The Economic Outlook: Live Long and Prosper
Looking forward, I expect that we’ll reach our maximum employment mandate in the near future and inflation will gradually move back to our 2 percent goal. In that context, it will make sense to gradually move away from the extraordinary stimulus that got us here. We already took a step in that direction when we ended QE3. And given the progress we’ve made and continue to make on our goals, I view the next appropriate step as gradually raising interest rates, most likely starting sometime later this year. Of course, that view is not immutable and will respond to economic developments over time.
From Chicago Fed President Charles Evans: Thoughts on Leadership and Monetary Policy
Before raising rates, I would like to have more confidence than I do today that inflation is indeed beginning to head higher. Given the current low level of core inflation, some evidence of true upward momentum in actual inflation is critical to this assessment. I believe that it could well be the middle of next year before the headwinds from lower energy prices and the stronger dollar dissipate enough so that we begin to see some sustained upward movement in core inflation. After liftoff, I think it would be appropriate to raise the target interest rate very gradually. This would give us sufficient time to assess how the economy is adjusting to higher rates and the progress we are making toward our policy goals