Saturday, September 26, 2015

Schedule for Week of September 27, 2015

by Bill McBride on 9/26/2015 09:13:00 AM

Special Note: If Congress shuts down the government on Wednesday, the employment report will not be released on Friday.

The key report this week is the September employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the September ISM manufacturing index and September vehicle sales, both on Thursday.

There are several Federal Reserve speakers this week.

----- Monday, September 28th -----

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September.

----- Tuesday, September 29th -----

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices 9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July. Although this is the July report, it is really a 3 month average of May, June and July prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the June 2015 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 5.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.6% year-over-year in July.

----- Wednesday, September 30th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for September. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 190,000 payroll jobs added in September, the same as in August.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September. The consensus is for a reading of 53.6, down from 54.4 in August.

----- Thursday, October 1st -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 272 thousand initial claims, up from 267 thousand the previous week.

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for September. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.5, down from 51.1 in August.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 51.1% in August. The employment index was at 51.2%, and the new orders index was at 51.6%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for August. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for September. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 17.5 million SAAR in September from 17.7 million in August (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the August sales rate.

----- Friday, October 2nd -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for September. The consensus is for an increase of 203,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in September, up from the 173,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.1%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In August, the year-over-year change was over 2.9 million jobs.

As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for August. The consensus is a 1.3% decrease in orders.