Wednesday, August 26, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller to show "Uptick in Appreciation" year-over-year change in July

by Bill McBride on 8/26/2015 11:59:00 AM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for June were released yesterday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: July Case-Shiller: Expect a Slight Uptick in Appreciation

The June S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published today showed home prices continuing to rise at an annual rate of five percent for the 20-city composite and 4.6 percent for the 10-city composite. The national index has risen 4.5 percent since June 2014.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 10- and 20-city indices were both down 0.1 percent from May to June. We expect the change in the July SPCS to show increases of 0.8 percent for the 20-city index and 0.7 percent for the 10-City Index.

All Case-Shiller forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s June SPCS data release and the July 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), release August 24. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for July will not be officially released until Tuesday, September 28.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the July Case-Shiller National index will be slightly higher than in the June report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
June
Actual YoY
4.6%4.6%5.0%5.0%4.5%4.5%
July
Forecast
YoY
4.8%4.8%5.2%5.2%4.6%4.6%
July
Forecast
MoM
0.7%0.1%0.8%0.1%0.7%0.3%