Wednesday, September 09, 2015

Las Vegas Real Estate in August: Sales Increased 11% YoY

by Bill McBride on 9/09/2015 12:51:00 PM

This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Moving on up: GLVAR reports local home sales, prices up from same time last year

According to GLVAR, the total number of existing local homes, condominiums and townhomes sold in August was 3,454, up from 3,120 one year ago. Compared to August 2014, 11.2 percent more homes and 8.3 percent more condos and townhomes sold this August. Through Aug. 31, GLVAR reported a total of 26,225 sales so far in 2015, compared to 24,965 sales during the same period in 2014.
...
For more than two years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. In August, 6.2 percent of all local sales were short sales – which occur when lenders allow borrowers to sell a home for less than what they owe on the mortgage. That’s down from 11.5 percent one year ago. Another 7.0 percent of August sales were bank-owned, down from 8.9 percent one year ago.
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The total number of single-family homes listed for sale on GLVAR’s Multiple Listing Service in August was 13,608, down 1.0 percent from one year ago. GLVAR tracked a total of 3,459 condos, high-rise condos and townhomes listed for sale on its MLS in August, down 4.5 percent from one year ago.

By the end of August, GLVAR reported 8,060 single-family homes listed without any sort of offer. That’s up 3.5 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 2,319 properties listed without offers in August represented a 3.3 percent decrease from one year ago.
emphasis added
There are several key trends that we've been following:

1) Overall sales were up 11% year-over-year.

2) Conventional (equity, not distressed) sales were up 21% year-over-year.  In Aug 2014, 79.6% of all sales were conventional equity.  In Aug 2015, 86.8% were standard equity sales.

3) The percent of cash sales has declined year-over-year from 32.1% in Aug 2014 to 28.2% in Aug 2015. (investor buying appears to be declining).

4) Non-contingent inventory is up 3.5% year-over-year. The table below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas. Inventory declined sharply through early 2013, and then inventory started increasing sharply year-over-year. It appears the inventory build is slowing  - but still ongoing.


Las Vegas: Year-over-year
Change in Non-contingent
Inventory
MonthYoY
Jan-13-58.3%
Feb-13-53.4%
Mar-13-42.1%
Apr-13-24.1%
May-13-13.2%
Jun-133.7%
Jul-139.0%
Aug-1341.1%
Sep-1360.5%
Oct-1373.4%
Nov-1377.4%
Dec-1378.6%
Jan-1496.2%
Feb-14107.3%
Mar-14127.9%
Apr-14103.1%
May-14100.6%
Jun-1486.2%
Jul-1455.2%
Aug-1438.8%
Sep-1429.5%
Oct-1425.6%
Nov-1420.0%
Dec-1418.0%
Jan-1512.9%
Feb-1515.8%
Mar-1512.2%
Apr-157.6%
May-157.8%
Jun-154.3%
Jul-155.1%
Aug-153.5%