by Bill McBride on 9/14/2015 10:14:00 AM
Monday, September 14, 2015
Note: There were some large swings in LA area port traffic earlier this year due to labor issues that were settled on February 21st. Port traffic surged in March as the waiting ships were unloaded (the trade deficit increased in March too), and port traffic declined in April.
Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.
The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).
To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.
Click on graph for larger image.
On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 1.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in July. Outbound traffic was down 0.4% compared to 12 months ending in July.
The recent downturn in exports might be due to the strong dollar and weakness in China.
The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).
Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March (depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year).
Imports were up 12% year-over-year in August; exports were down 4% year-over-year.
On a monthly basis, imports were at an all time high.
This data suggests a larger trade deficit with Asia in August, and that U.S. retailers are optimistic about the holiday shopping season.