Thursday, September 03, 2015

Goldman Employment Forecast: 190K Jobs

by Bill McBride on 9/03/2015 04:34:00 PM

A brief excerpt from a research note by Goldman Sachs economist Chris Mischaikow August Payrolls Preview

We forecast nonfarm payroll growth of 190k in August, below the consensus forecast of 218k and down from July’s 215k gain. Labor market indicators were mixed last month. However, reported August payroll growth has tended to be relatively soft in the first release, with more frequent downside surprises and larger upward revisions compared to other months.

We expect the unemployment rate to decline to 5.2%, in line with consensus. Average hourly earnings for all employees are likely to increase 0.3% month-over-month in August.