Monday, September 21, 2015

Existing Home Sales in August: 5.31 million SAAR

by Bill McBride on 9/21/2015 10:13:00 AM

From the NAR: Existing-Home Sales Stall in August, Prices Moderate

Total existing–home sales, which are completed transactions that include single–family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co–ops, fell 4.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.31 million in August from a slight downward revision of 5.58 million in July. Despite last month's decline, sales have risen year–over–year for 11 consecutive months and are 6.2 percent above a year ago (5.00 million). ...

Total housing inventory at the end of August rose 1.3 percent to 2.29 million existing homes available for sale, but is 1.7 percent lower than a year ago (2.33 million). Unsold inventory is at a 5.2–month supply at the current sales pace, up from 4.9 months in July.
Existing Home SalesClick on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in August (5.31 million SAAR) were 4.8% lower than last month, and were 6.2% above the August 2014 rate.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

Existing Home Inventory According to the NAR, inventory increased to 2.29 million in August from 2.26 million in July.   Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The third graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Year-over-year Inventory Inventory decreased 1.7% year-over-year in August compared to August 2014.  

Months of supply was at 5.2 months in August.

This was below expectations of sales of 5.50 million. For existing home sales, a key number is inventory - and inventory is still low. I'll have more later ...