Saturday, August 29, 2015

Schedule for Week of August 30, 2015

by Bill McBride on 8/29/2015 08:31:00 AM

The key report this week is the August employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include the August ISM manufacturing index and August vehicle sales, both on Tuesday, and the July Trade Deficit on Thursday.

----- Monday, August 31st -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for August. The consensus is for a reading of 54.9, up from 54.7 in July.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August.

----- Tuesday, September 1st -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 52.8, up from 52.7 in July.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 52.7% in July. The employment index was at 52.7%, and the new orders index was at 56.5%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for July. The consensus is for a 0.8% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for August. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 173 million SAAR in August from 17.5 million in July (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the July sales rate.

----- Wednesday, September 2nd -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for August. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 210,000 payroll jobs added in August, up from 185,000 in July.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is a 0.9% increase in orders.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, September 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 273 thousand initial claims, up from 271 thousand the previous week.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for July from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $42.9 billion in July from $42.8 billion in June.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for August. The consensus is for index to decrease to 58.5 from 60.3 in July.

----- Friday, September 4th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for August. The consensus is for an increase of 223,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in August, up from the 215,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in July.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to decrease to 5.2%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In July, the year-over-year change was over 2.9 million jobs.

As always, a key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.